I’ve never been a fan of pre-season polls. They are done for those who enjoy Fantasy Leagues and for those who place a wager or two on such information, but the reality is that they are much more wrong than right.
For my book, Raising Giants, I decided to investigate. I looked at the Associated Press’s Top 25 preseason college poll for the 2021 campaign, comparing that list with their final season ratings. Only ten of the initial 25 found their names listed. And of those 10, only two ended the season within two spots, plus or minus, of their preseason ranking. Two out of 25!! So, I ask you, how credible is a preseason poll?
Heading into the 2025 collegiate football season, two teams were the subject of some debate. One being my alma mater, the UCLA Bruins. The other the Colorado Buffaloes, sans Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter and teammate Shedeur Sanders, himself a Top 10 Heisman finalist.
In 2024, in DeShaun Foster’s first year as head coach, the Bruins finished with a 5-7 record, 14th in the Big Ten. But there was some hope for 2025 as they won four of their last five contests. Then they signed through the transfer portal former Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava (subject of my blog “The Grass Isn’t Always Greener”), who arrived in Knoxville with great fanfare as a 5-star recruit. Nico’s addition to the roster immediately boosted UCLA’s prospect for the 2025 season in the minds of many analysts.
As the season concludes, the pundits have been proven wrong. UCLA will likely finish an underwhelming 3-8. How could that happen given the anticipation of Nico’s presence? Quite simple. UCLA doesn’t possess the same level of talent that Nico enjoyed during his one season at Tennessee. All aspects of the UCLA offense are inferior by comparison. Knowing that would not have required the intellect of a rocket scientist. Yet the so-called “experts” seemed to ignore this reality.
Colorado’s evaluation wasn’t much different. Some believed that the Buffs might compete for a Big 12 Conference championship. If one was really evaluating the Buffalo’s prospects with their grey matter rather than their beating heart, how could one be so positive? Hunter and Sanders accounted for 82.5% of the team’s total offensive production. Even with 5-star caliber replacements, that production was going to be impossible to replicate.
Adding to the two key departures was the fact that Colorado lost eight offensive linemen after the 2024 season to graduation or the portal. Heading into the season, only one starter from the first 2024 game was projected to take the field in 2025’s inaugural game. All these departures are not a recipe for improvement. And they haven’t. An encouraging 9-4 2004 and a bowl invite has flipped to 3-8 thus far in 2005 and a view from the sidelines this coming bowl season.
My point. To accurately predict the prospects of a collegiate football team from one year to the next it’s imperative to rely upon future realities rather than the achievements of the past year. Evaluations require more of a methodical, intellectual, fact-based approach rather than a reliance on what was, or what one wants it to be.